Ali Reza Samiei Esfahani; Mohsen Shfiei Seif Abadi
Volume 4, Issue 14 , December 2015, , Pages 199-227
Abstract
The following article is orchestrated on the basis of scenario-basedprocessing as one of the main methods of future study. It tries to answer thismain question that “what would be the probable direction of the Salafijihadist groups such as Al-Nusra Front and Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISSI) ...
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The following article is orchestrated on the basis of scenario-basedprocessing as one of the main methods of future study. It tries to answer thismain question that “what would be the probable direction of the Salafijihadist groups such as Al-Nusra Front and Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISSI) in the Middle East? It seems that five scenarios can be anticipated inthree categories: A) Favorable scenario: 1) the final destruction of TakfirijihadiIslamists and democratically distribution of power under theceremonial leadership of Bashar al-Assad 2) suppression of takfiri groupsand ruling of the Islamic Republic, instead of the Arabic Republic of Syriaand Iraq. B) Probable scenario: 1) the elimination of Da’ash anddistribution of power between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnite in Syria 2)Breakup of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan's independence. C) Possible scenarios:1) capturing Baghdad and Beirut government and establishing thegovernment known as the Islamic regime by takfiri-jihadi groups. In order tokeep their own entities, the political systems of Syria and Iraq should carryout reforms mainly in the political, economic and social realms
